In a new weekly update for pv magazine, Solcast, a DNV company, reports that a surge in sunshine has resulted in record-breaking solar generation across several European countries this August, with the trend set to continue for the remainder of the month.
Solcast
A high-pressure system centered over France, Spain and the Atlantic has led to 20% more irradiance than usual across Europe this August. The surge in sunshine has resulted in record-breaking solar generation across several European countries, with grids setting new highs for the month. According to analysis using the Solcast API, this trend is expected to persist for the remainder of August, delivering continued elevated solar production across the continent.
On August 5, France recorded its highest ever solar generation in a single day, as clear skies delivered increased irradiance due to the high-pressure system sitting across France and the Atlantic and an unusually dry atmosphere in the region. The clear skies allowed for optimal solar conditions, which, when combined with the 30% expansion of France’s solar market in 2023, resulted in a generation peak of more than 15 GW for the first time.
Due to seasonal changes and a shortening day, August typically sees less irradiance than June and July. However due to a cloudier than normal June and July, and particularly clear conditions this August, August 5 was one of France’s sunniest days this year, with average irradiance levels surpassing 6.5 kWh/m² across almost the entire country. While days earlier in the year approached this level, national solar generation had not surpassed 15 GW until August 5. Forecasts accurate at time of publishing suggest the record might be broken again on Tuesday August 27.
Other European markets also experienced their highest solar generation recorded in August, as a result of increased irradiance and ongoing growth in solar capacity. Regions from Spain to the Balkans benefited from irradiance levels 10% to 20% above the August average. This widespread uptick in solar generation has been driven mainly by capacity increases, rather than record-breaking irradiance. In Germany, industrial and commercial solar installations surged by more than 80% in the early months of 2024 compared to previous years, while Italy added 1.7 GW of new solar capacity in Q1 2024, nearly four times the amount installed in 2023.
Looking ahead, forecasts indicate a strong finish to August for photovoltaic generation. The final week of the month is expected to bring clearer skies, continuing the favorable conditions for solar power. Solar generation across Europe’s grids is projected to be around 30% higher than during the same period in previous years, even after adjusting for the recent growth in capacity. This suggests that the sunny conditions and high solar output will persist, marking August as a standout month for solar energy across the continent.
Solcast produces these figures by tracking clouds and aerosols at 1-2km resolution globally, using satellite data and proprietary AI/ML algorithms. This data is used to drive irradiance models, enabling Solcast to calculate irradiance at high resolution, with typical bias of less than 2%, and also cloud-tracking forecasts. This data is used by more than 300 companies managing over 150GW of solar assets globally.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own, and do not necessarily reflect those held by pv magazine.
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